On February 4, 2009, Tyler Cowen
1 asked, "
Did the stimulus bill just fail?"
Economists have been discussing the need for a large fiscal stimulus package for a long time. Ever since the economic world catastrophically imploded five months ago, I figured Obama's economic team was diligently working night and day hashing out plans to resurrect us from the dead. And surely, I thought, they would create a good stimulus package that would be ready to sail through Congress with flying colors during the opening days of the new administration.
So when I read Cowen's blog post, I nearly choked on my spoonful of granola cereal. Failure to pass a stimulus package, in my mind, was the equivalent of nuking our own economy - not to mention the world's. How could this fail!? And it is during times like these that my own knowledge gaps are blatantly exposed: I had little idea how the legislative process worked. So I went to my public library and got a book on it.
*********************************
Just as
James Barron follows the life of one Steinway concert grand, from the choice of timber for the case to its first performance at the Metropolitan Museum of Art, Eric Redman
2 follows the life of one Senate bill, from the initial theoretical conception to the climactic signing of the bill by President Nixon. And just as
Piano helped me understand the elegant, tightly choreographed process that wood workers, tuners, technicians, and quality checkers participate in to produce one single concert grand piano,
The Dance of Legislation helped me understand the sometimes chaotic, often frustrating, emotionally taxing mission to get a bill passed.
As a legislative aide to the powerful Senator Warren Magnuson
3 in 1970, Redman was tasked with managing a bill that would create the
National Health Services Corps. The Corps would enlist doctors who would be paid salaries by the federal government to practice medicine in underdeveloped, poor areas of the United States, parts that doctors tended to avoid, for obvious reasons. And because Redman was the key player in terms of drafting the legislation and meeting and negotiating with the endless number of bureaucrats, Senators and Representatives, aides, lobbyists, congressional hearing witnesses, journalists and presidential aides necessary to help make the NHSC come to life, his account of the dance is absolutely fascinating.
*********************************
Since Cowen's post, I began to pay much closer attention to the Senate debates and hearings on the stimulus bill. I watched C-SPAN and listened to Senator after Senator propose long-winded Senatorial amendment after long-winded Senatorial amendment. During this process, a friend emailed me a partial list of proposed amendments
4 to the current stimulus package, including the following:
Sponsor: Sen. Murray (D-WA) / Sen. Feinstein (D-CA)
Description: Would boost highway funding from $27 billion to $40 billion, transit funding from $8.4 billion to $13.4 billion, and water and sewer funding from $6 billion to $13 billion.
Vote: Defeated 58-39 in motion to waive the budget act.
Sponsor: Sen. McCain (R-AZ)
Description: Would replace the entire stimulus bill with new $240 billion plan, which includes multiple tax cuts.
Vote: Defeated 40-57 in motion to waive the budget act.
What I was watching on C-SPAN suddenly made that much more sense. These amendments to the stimulus package were, of course, anything but arbitrary. Senator Murray, from Washington State, is Chair of the Transportation and HUD Appropriations Subcommittee and she does much in the way of lobbying for federal transportation funds for the state; there are already many large infrastructure projects underway which are either in the planning stages or actually under construction in Washington State
5. Senator McCain's amendment was very different, and I'm sure he had no visions of it actually passing, but it held symbolic significance. Earlier this week, as a subscriber of McCain's (and Obama's) email list throughout the presidential campaign, I received the following message from the Senator:
I cannot and do not support the package on the table from the Democrats and the Obama Administration. Our country does not need just another spending bill, particularly not one that will load future generations with the burden of massive debt. We need a short term stimulus bill that will directly help people, create jobs, and provide a jolt to our economy.
Just as the intent of the McCain amendment was not surprising - tax cuts, not government spending - nor was the vote of 40 for, 57 against, strictly down party lines.
Scanning the list of amendments, I realized how remarkably naive it was to assume that a President, even with sky-high approval ratings and political capital aplenty, would be able to get a stimulus bill through Congress without hiccups. There are hundreds of bills that are passed every year, but there are few, if any, that will receive as much public scrutiny as this one.
*********************************
For the average citizen, my guess is that the takeaway (if they indeed take anything away at all) upon hearing about a prospective legislative bill is probably a combination of three things:
1. The name of the bill. [Example: TARP.]
2. If there is one, a price tag. [$700 billion.]
3. The theoretical purpose of the bill. [Save banks.]
Absent from this list is anything related to the actual nitty gritty details - when it will be enacted, how it will be enacted, and what it is exactly composed of. The public is almost never exposed to these bits and usually, all it gets is a somewhat tightly marketed message. We, as a public, are approached by legislators who are trying to sell us a product.
As I said before, Redman met and negotiated with bureaucrats, Senators and Representatives, aides, lobbyists, congressional hearing witnesses, journalists and presidential aides; this is no simple task. A massive amount of compromise and concessions had to be made to satisfy all necessary partners for the NHSC - and this was for a bill that, in 1970 dollars, was allocated a few tens of millions, and was a few pages long.
So, it must have been fascinating to watch the chaotic dance of compromise and concession for a bill that, in 2009 dollars, is close to a
trillion dollars, and is over 600 pages... but because Redman turns a small amount of finished legislative product inside out and shows us the innards, I can begin to imagine what that dance looked like.
*********************************
1 Tyler Cowen is an economist at George Mason University and a blogger at Marginal Revolution, an excellent blog. NERA's own
Jonathan Falk seems to be a
regular reader.
2 The back of the book jacket of my library copy lists Redman's ridiculous resume: "Eric Redman grew up in Seattle. He received his education at Andover, Harvard, and Magdalen College, Oxford, where he was a Rhodes Scholar. He spent two years as an aide to Senator Warren G. Magnuson (D-WA), the third-ranking member of the U.S. Senate. He also worked as a logger and a longshoreman. Currently, he is a student at Harvard Law School and teaches writing at Harvard College." He published this book at the tender age at the age of 25. Where is he now? Apparently he used to work at the now-defunct
Heller Ehrman...
3 As a fixture in Washington state politics for decades, Magnuson's name dots the Seattle landscape. For example, I used to play pick-up basketball at public courts at
Magnuson Park. Also, he really brought in the pork; "by 1962... one out of every six Federal public-works dollars was flowing into Washington State."
4 Here's
a nice graph of a partial list of stimulus bill amendments, and who voted for them, courtesy of Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight. The Senators that needed coaxing, to whom concessions and compromises were offered, to make this bill filibuster-proof? Those squarely in the middle of Silver's graph:
Nelson, Snowe, Lieberman and Specter.
5 These projects include the replacing of the earthquake-vulnerable Alaskan Way Viaduct. It was damaged in the 2001 "Rattle in Seattle" Nisqually earthquake, which registered 6.8 on the Richter scale. And we,
just now, decided to build a tunnel to replace the viaduct. Yep, still working on this one.
Last note, I promise. A
contributor to this blog once pointed out to me that the Capitol
had a subway system, and Redman references it multiple times, i.e. "[Magnuson] invited us to join him on the Senate subway for the brief ride to the Old Senate Office Building." Senators actually ride this crappy-looking thing!